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Domestic Politics and Prospect Theory in International Conflict: Explaining Japan's War Decision in the 1904 Russo-Japanese War

Domestic Politics and Prospect Theory in International Conflict: Explaining Japan's War Decision in the 1904 Russo-Japanese War

Volume 2 Number 2, Autumn 2011 pp. 66-84(19)
Research Article
2011/9/1
Rothman, Steven B.
This project explains the Japanese decision for war against Russia in 1904 by applying theories of war involving the democratic process, the domestic and government interests, and prospect theory. The project demonstrates the limits of psychological variables to analyze or explain international decisions due to the political complexity and domestic and global context of decision-making. In particular, the project uses economic framing to proxy a gains domain and security frames to proxy the losses domain. Risk sensitivities and preference ordering of the domestic interests (military and common business persons) are consistent with prospect theory, while the political connections between domestic constituents and decision-makers provide an intervening influence on the decision for war. The result suggests careful use of prospect theory and the importance of factors in addition to psychological ones when applied to international politics.
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